Sometimes I find myself reflecting on investment schemes I have been part of that have failed miserably. I'm talking about the kind where every $10 you invested turns into 10 cents, or worse.

I can think of a few here on Hive that I have been part of (including one permenently embdded in my username), as well as a number out in the greater world.

In what we might call the "post game analysis" I invariably end up asking myself what exactly went wrong, and whether there were signs I should have known were a warning... before the wheels fell off the wagon.

I look back, and wonder whether I was scammed by a very sneaky operator who managed to come across as trustworthy, or was it just unfortunate timing, or was it simply somebody who started the project and was excessively ignorant about the potential downsides and the difficulty involved in making a success of something.

Let's face it, it is not easy to make something actually work, in the long run. You might think you have a golden goose, but you actually have little more than a box of rocks!

Then there's the additional consideration of whether it was a complete waste of money and time, or something that actually had potential but failed through factors that really were nobody's fault in particular. One of the things they do not teach in business schools is the "luck factor," because it's not reproducible.

Side stepping from investments for a moment, I've met a number of small business owners over the years who were quite passionate about what they were doing and yet failed. In their retrospectives we often end up with a discussion in which they say that they "just were not able to imagine that things could go THAT badly."

The sheer scale of the rejection of what they thought was a great idea was beyond their grasp.

I guess there's some justification for that, at some level. After all, you wouldn't be very smart to get into a business if you didn't hold an enormous amount of enthusiasm and optimism for what you were doing, along with an unwavering belief in your project's success.

Businesses — and investment schemes, as well — often turn out to be an invitation to their originators to discover that their idea really isn't as good as they thought, and that they really aren't nearly as popular as they believed.

Or they make the fatal misjudgment that "everybody" is going to love their plan... which actually turns out to be so niche that there are only 17 participants in something that requires 17,000 in order to succeed.

And that can be one of the great challenges in life when we come face to face with the idea that we're really not nearly as clever as we think we are.

When you're an investor, it's not always enough to merely "look before you leap," because it's very difficult to have Perfect information."

But I do wish I had those dollars/Hive back!

Thanks for coming to visit!

=^..^=