RE: El Toque Was Right (En-Es)

Enrique Yecier, your analysis was spot-on, and reality proved you right faster than even your six-month timeline. The convergence between the official floating rate and El Toque's informal rate is a brutal vindication of your position — when the government's own exchange mechanism lands within 9.21% of what they previously called "manipulated," it exposes the denial for what it was.

Your historical context is crucial. The 1990s precedent (120 pesos per dollar on 230-peso monthly salaries) demonstrated that hyperinflation doesn't need internet conspiracy theories — it needs economic collapse, which Cuba has had in abundance. The peso's trajectory from 35 before the "ordering task" to 50 when El Toque launched, then continuing upward, followed the textbook path of a currency in freefall with no institutional credibility to anchor it.

The government's campaign against El Toque was classic shoot-the-messenger politics. Recent reports confirm the Central Bank set the floating rate at 410 pesos per dollar, while El Toque (which faced cyberattacks and blocking after the government's campaign) continued tracking the informal market with accuracy that's now undeniable. When your "inflated" reference rate and the official rate are within 10% of each other, the reference wasn't the problem — the economy was.

Your prediction that bank dollar sales wouldn't stop the devaluation also held. Distrust in state financial institutions plus sustained dollar demand created exactly the dynamic you described. The peso has lost 56.5% of its value since January 2025 and a staggering 1840% since December 2020, per your earlier thread. That's not manipulation — that's economic reality asserting itself regardless of what anyone wants to believe.

The real question now: will those who dismissed your analysis six months ago acknowledge they were wrong, or will they find new scapegoats?