Are We Headed For Another Bronze Age Collapse ?
Around 1177BC (an approximate date, of course), the Bronze Age civilisations of the Mediterranean Basin and Middle East either disappeared or suffered major trauma.
It's described as "The Late Bronze Age Collapse". After it, there was a significant Dark Age, followed by the emergence of completely new Iron Age cultures. The collapse was so bad that with the exceptions of Egypt and Assyria, both of which were severely weakened, all the old empires were swept away being replaced initially with a patchwork of independent towns and city states. Trade routes disappeared, cities were abandoned, and in Greece even the use of writing was abandoned. Chariot warfare also disappeared, as the idea of ruling elites fighting as the hoi-polloi cheered them on was replaced by more brutal warfare by iron-clad mass armies.
There are quite a few books and YouTube videos on the subject, and probably the greatest expert on the topic is Professor Eric Cline. His work is very entertaining and accessible, even if the subject material is complex. The video below is one of his key lectures on it;
What Happened ?
The Late Bronze Age Collapse was a complex phenomenon. It's causes (and symptoms) include climate change (in the form of an extensive drought in the Eastern Mediterranean), famine, massive and often violent population migrations, disruption of trade routes from Afghanistan to Britain, and competition and warfare between Empires. Other possible contribitory factors may have been epidemics and volcanic eruption.
At this point, no-one knows which of these might have been original causes, and which were knock-on effects. The debates between scholars have been intense. But the real issue seems to have been that the socio-economic system immediately before was complex, closely interlinked, and fragile.
So if the climate changed or empires warred breaking down systems of governance, previously rapidly growing populations would start to starve. The famine would drive populations to migrate (the "Sea Peoples"). Their destruction of cities would lead to further waves of migration as well as disruption of trade routes. The loss of vital trade commodities would cause economies to fail, governments to fall, and the whole mess became a self-reinforcing cycle.
How Does That Affect US ?
It is my belief that we may be in the middle stages of an equivalent collapse, and we just haven't realised it yet.
Over-complex trade and financial networks are being seen to be increasingly vulnerable to disruption. The west moved much of it's manufacturing to the Far East. What happens if that stops ?
People say "why would it ?" But the reality is that the supply of Russian oil and gas to Europe has pretty much stopped to be replaced by vastly more expensive US supplies, causing a cost of living crisis and significant economic disruption. Now imagine what happens if any of the many conflicts around the world turns to all-out war, or if a country like China repsonds to US tariffs by just ceasing all trade with the west ?
We already have an analogue to the Sea Peoples, in the form of mass migration of populations towards a west that was thought to be prosperous but actually is all based on an illusion of financial shenanigans. The financial and societal disruption caused by migration is already evident, and in some cases the migrants are carving out fiefdoms that are effectively independent of the central government. It won't take much for sporadic violence to turn into all-out ethnic warfare. Note that I don't blame the migrants; they are just trying to find a better life and don't realise they've been sold an illusion until it's already too late.
The technological change at the end of the Bronze Age has an analogue right now, as the internet and AI totally change the world we live in. It's a little imperfect, as there's a theory that ironworking spread after the Bronze Age collapse simply because it became so hard to source the tin used in bronze.
We've also got climate change going on. Although actually, my view is that the real issue here is that it is actually minor and well within the range of recent historical variation. We still can't grow grapes in Yorkshire as they did in Roman times, and humanity has survived much greater changes, such as the sea level rise at the end of the last Ice Age.
To my mind, the real issue here isn't climate change so much as over-population compounded by over-use of resources an incredibly unequal distribution of wealth. Too many raw resources from Africa, Asia and South America are used by North America and Europe, meaning there isn't the wealth to mitigate climate changes which would otherwise be easily manageable.
What Can We Do About It ?
Being brutally realistic, on an individual level it is unlikely we'll be able to influence the self-selected politicians and billionaires who currently rule the world. Not that we should stop complaining to them !
But we can take a few steps to mitigate the situaltion we may face.
Internationally, we can keep communications open with people from other places and cultures. Mutual symapthy and understanding can go a long way to reduce the hostility our leaders try to engender, and broader horizons will reduce the tendency to devolve to village-level societies.
But locally, we can try to become more self sufficient and resource aware. It is likely that money will become valueless as it's hyper-inflated away to pay off crazy sovereign debt. But (just like at the end of the Bronze Age and Fall of Rome), gold, silver and other precious metals will hold their value. The real currency will be skills. Learn a trade, learn how to fix things, learn how to grow food. All of those will help in a barter economy.
We should also try to become more prepared. I don't mean turning into some kind of redneck militia-style prepper. But know what you need to do if the power grid goes down, if the fresh water stops, if you have to cook food over an open fire, or if yo uneed to treat minor injuries because the hospitals are overwhelmed. Try to build up small stocks of basic foods, hygiene products, medicines, and loo roll.
If there's a collapse coming, these simple steps will give you a chance of weathering it. If we're lucky and it doesn't happen, well, you'll have picked up some useful life skills and a resilient mindset.
Posted using The BBH Project