Hive with its own Prediction Market?
This is what I discovered today!
Hive Blockhain has its own Prediction Market and it is fully working!
Disclaimer: This is a brand new dApp, so please do not try this out if you feel in any way uncomfortable with it. Please make sure you only use apps that you trust and do your research before any financial actions
I am not sure who created it, so please enlighten me below - but this really exciting because I was already planning to get more into prediction markets as there really has been an explosion in the past few months.
(Prediction Markets is also one week of study material at the MOOC Mastering Web3, so I m looking forward for this week: https://www.unic.ac.cy/iff/education-and-training/free-courses-moocs/mastering-web3-blockchain-cryptocurrencies-nfts-and-the-metaverse/)
When you log in Hive Predict, you will be able to participate to one of the Markets or to create your own Market
https://hivepredict.app/markets/create
Step 1
I will make a test prediction that will be resolved soon, and it will be automatically resolved
I chose Price Target (Auto) and then in 1st step it autogenerates the title after you choose token, and conditions
Second steps is to choose dates
Step 3 is to set the amount of hive, the minimum amount of Participants and of course your own take on the bet.
I suggest that before you place a new market, you fully understand how it works
Parimutuel Prediction Markets
HivePredict uses a parimutuel pooling model. There is no order book. Users pick an outcome (YES or NO) and stake HIVE or HBD tokens into a shared pool. When the market resolves, the winning side splits the losing side's tokens proportionally based on each winner's individual stake.
Anti-Whale Design
Every account is subject to a per-market stake cap. A whale with 500,000 HIVE has the same maximum exposure as someone with 200 HIVE. Account eligibility requirements (minimum account age, reputation, and posting history) mitigate sybil attacks.
Creating a Market
Log in with HiveKeychain or Hivesigner
Click "Create Market" and fill out the market details
Choose your side (YES or NO) — creators must have skin in the game
Pay the creation fee
Your market goes live and accepts predictions
Placing a PredictionBrowse active markets and find one you want to predict on
Choose YES or NO
Enter your stake amount (up to the market's per-account cap)
Confirm the transaction in HiveKeychain
Your tokens are transferred to the pool and your prediction is recorded on-chain
After a short while and a confirmation through Hive Chain, the Market is created!
https://hivepredict.app/markets/e5cf1995-4dc3-4ec5-a149-37c8bd631eb7
It is still as pending, and as you see the stake cap is 20 $HIVE and I have paid 5 $HIVE as a creator.
As I am still pretty ignorant, this is just a test so feel free to place a bet - the resolution will be just in a bit less than 3 days
I am not suggesting that you start gambling, (of course not - please always make your own research before any financial actions) - but it is for me very interesting to see how finance evolves through the years and how blockchain comes to affect previously only web2 sections.
HivePredict seems very easy to use, so it could be a nice opportunity for users to participate and help our ecosystem grow. Maybe also invite users who can come for the prediction options? It will be very interesting to see how it evolves, and stay tuned for more posts by me on this subject.
If you have written about it, or read an interesting post on hive, feel free to share it below!
Check price: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hive
p.s. I wrote an article on x about prediction markets and hive (the first of a series) so feel free to support it!
https://x.com/katerinaramm1/status/2025509612770701370
Posted Using INLEO
WoW is amazing but when will end? I mean need to be a losing point.
When you check every different market, you see the closing date!
Right i see it when i place the bet. 😄
Thanks for participating! Wishing some profits for us both :)
And why i must use my keys ???
You should not use your keys, they are using hive key chain or hive signer for logging in.
Of course you should not try this out if you feel in any way uncomfortable with it.
I am mentioning this in my post, please make sure you only use apps that you trust and do your research before any financial actions
Thank you very much for commenting :)
Then why did you not but same text in post 💁♂️💁♂️💁♂️💁♂️ ???
I have included the text to always do your own research before any financial actions, but I will edit and put this at a more easy-to see spot.
Thank you for your input
Keys are only used to sign operations. To broadcast custom JSON events or transfer to obviously place a bet outcome on an existing market. The site doesn't store any keys or anything, this is a layer-2 based app, so it relies on the chain for operations. Your account broadcasts the operation, I parse it in the app and then you can see for other things it happens with the hivepredict account here https://wallet.hive.blog/@hivepredict/transfers
Really awesome! Thanks for sharing!
Just strange that nobody is referenced on the site. It is a kind of a red flag normally.
I saw this on X by forky, and he is usually one of the first ones to know about new projects.
Since its log in is with hive keychain and hivesigner, I think it is ok - but of course, we always need to be alert and careful!
Hey, this was created by me. I haven't properly launched it yet, more of a soft launch so I can observe it and intervene if things go astray because of the moving pieces. I've built plenty of Hive projects prior, but this is arguably one of my more ambitious (especially the auto resolving pools and whatnot). I was so focused on building that I didn't even realise I didn't put my name on there or link to my Hive profile, haha.
Great job!
Now you should advertize it heavily, so that more markets are available and the bets make more fun 😄
I added in my profile and some more visibility on the info page so it doesn't look faceless anymore, lmao. I'm tweaking some other parts on it right now. Someone mentioned burning 5% of the pool, so I'm implementing a burn mechanic now to send 5% to @null and a few other little hardening things around markets and whatnot.
I felt like this is what Hive was missing tbh, a fun little prediction platform and not another dice gambling app.
Fully agree! Prediction markets are cool. Nobody needs more gambling sites :)
But I suggest to reduce the creation fee in the beginning at least to stir some more testing and playing around.
If they had included a minimum of 5% of all bets intended to be burned automatically at the time of awarding the prizes, that would be great for Hive.
!BBH
I think it is a great idea and i hope that the feedback will be considered
Great idea honestly. I am going to implement this today. I think that would be a really awesome thing to have.
The creator of the site is @beggars.
https://peakd.com/hive-139531/@beggars/introducing-hivepredict-prediction-markets-on-the-hive-blockchain-open-beta
Thank you!
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Yeah that's basically a gambling site, what scare me is that here there will be no limit, no auto stop that betting sites have instead
Fair point, and I agree responsible limits matter. HivePredict isn’t unlimited betting though: each account has a strict per-market stake cap, there’s no leverage/credit, and every market has a fixed close time so betting auto-stops.
But I do plan on adding responsible use controls like personal limits/cooldowns and even a self-exclusion feature.
That's good, it's easy to fall on addiction for people who don't have much self control...
An other thing, if I'm not wrong there are sports bets too, does the bet closes when match starts or goes in live too?
Thanks for the write-up, I built this app. I haven't really started marketing it or anything yet, kinda a soft launch while I tinker behind the scenes. In the early days of this I'm actively keeping an eye on it and stepping in/fixing if things fall down. My first time building something as ambitious as this, but lots of fun. I just entered the market you created, awesome to see someone else create a market that wasn't one I created, haha.
Sorry if sharing this all over made a mess. Didn't know you were sort of soft launching, otherwise would have done it less loudly... 🤣
Either way, if it helps you improve it, that was the main idea, also because I believe it has merit. So, I wanted to kindly expose that.
Haha, no need to apologise. It was ready to go anyways, I'm just terrible sometimes not pushing things as hard as I should sometimes. Glad to see people giving it a shot though.
Question/suggestion, the link generation always generates a new link apparently, and looks like the previous one gets disabled... It would be nicer if one could control this, as sometimes where you share things you don't want them to "not exist" in the future... and kind of work forever.
Also because if you refresh the page, the thing goes away, and you have to click on it to get to the battle link, invalidating the previous one.
You are always the first one to know :)
Lots of people looking at different things. And usually I like to be connected with different types of them to allow for a wide diversity of topics. Maybe I am developing some sort of ADHD lollolol...
Although there was plenty that "knew" (aka read his posts) before me, but did nothing other than... commented/upvoted. That leads to lower exploration/verifiability of the content.
My new process is that if I need to get back to things (because I don't have the time yet), I will put a bookmark or if the quality matches my standard, reblog, and then come back to it as soon as possible (within the 7 days period) in order to, either curate or if I did already adjust my curation.
Been working quite well. By the way, your "article" mode on X, was perfect! Still have to go back and check how those things kind of work out in terms of attention there.
I am very happy to know you and I will check out your other apps too.
I think that hivepredict will be very popular and I m glad to see that you read the comments below :)
how much do you win? say if there are more yes than no and the no side wins how does that work?
Great question. HivePredict is pool-based (parimutuel), not fixed odds. All YES + NO stakes go into one pool, then at resolution we take fees (currently 3% platform and 5% burn), and the remaining pool is split only by the winning side, in proportion to each winner’s effective stake.
So yes, if YES has more money but NO wins, the NO side shares that bigger pool. Example: YES = 90, NO = 30, total = 120. After fees, 110.4 is distributable, and NO bettors split that 110.4 by their share.
Thank you for that very detailed explanation 😍
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STOPInteresting, this is another way to win or lose money on Hive.
Nice tech.
Thanks, it was about time that hive had its own prediction market :)
If we adopt gambling, we will only lose in the end.