Half May: Sell in May and Go Away or Brace For a Hot Crypto Summer?
That's a pretty good question, I believe. One without clear historical hints.
I mean, both happened in the past.
"Sell in May and go away" is an actual saying coming from the stock market which has proven its reliability over time. And since the general trend in crypto and stocks was similar for a long time, the same approach made sense in crypto too.
The reasoning behind this pattern is that summertime is when most vacations and plans for vacations happen, and people are less focused on their investments or on buying more (might even sell something to fund their vacations). So, if the offer remains or grows, but the demand is not as high, prices slowly retrace.
At the same time, less volume over summertime is an opportunity for bulls to take on higher levels, even if it can be relatively short-lived (1-2 months), unless excitement is built up and a higher wave of buyers is engaged.
That is why we have seen some summer rallies in crypto in the past. Keep in mind that if prices go up significantly, some of the investors who took the other option of selling in May to go away until fall, would re-enter the market and amplify the uptrend.
So, where are we in crypto now? Hard to say. I mean, we've had a significant uptrend on BTC and some of the alts. Is that it? I'm inclined to say it isn't. I don't think this uptrend will end without BTC reaching another ATH, since it is so close to it and didn't drop below 100k. Plus, the price seems to jump like on a staircase pattern since the beginning of April, and we are now on the "3rd step" (a little below it, which is why the question whether this is time to "sell in May and go away" or not).
Will this uptrend culminate with an alt episode, like we have seen ETH and a few others pump recently? Possibly, but I believe its full power will be in the late fall or winter.
If the scenario that the uptrend will continue after a little break on this "step" proves to be true, I still think we will have a period of cooling off during mid-late summer till September, before the last big uptrend starts.
The alternative is that we will have a boring summer, slightly in the red, perhaps interrupted by very short volatility periods, but I don't see that happening if anyone wants Q3/Q4 to look like the end of a bull market. Maybe if they push it to Q1 next year.
What do you think will happen?
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Take profits, half
Thanks for the advice! So, you are going with option "sell in May"?
Ensure some profits, at least
Honestly I never checked prices in summer, tough it's pretty relative since summer for north of the world is winter for the south
Yes, but the financial world, other than Australia, is in the north or, at most, tropics.
https://x.com/jewellery_all/status/1923778204432842889
#hive
Thanks for sharing.
I think the uptrend will mostly continue and it could be at a slower speed before reaching ATH and beyond. I've also heard somewhere that Trump mentions the stock market will go a lot higher and now is a great time to buy :)
https://x.com/Benzinga/status/1922328485806407993/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1922328485806407993¤tTweetUser=Benzinga
Oh well, if Trump says so... 😄
But I also think it has room to grow this summer.
It's just like that. Things have been changed a lot so that people can sell everything and get out of the market. So I have to say right here that this year is special and I will sell everything by the end of this year, by October or December.
That sounds like a good idea to sell at the (probable) end of the bull market.
I think it's tough to say, but I think there will probably be less volume. So maybe people can push things around more if they want to. Let's wait and see.
Less volume, but with institutional money involvement, "less" is already very high, and they kinda got a grip on the price movement, especially on BTC.
I think the uptrend might still continue and hoping it reach the Q4
I believe Q4 will be hype, at least part of it. Not sure what will happen until then.
I once told you that nothing spectacular will happen in Q2 in one of my post which you commented on, but the totality of Q3 will be great. Although we've had ETH do some spectacular run. ETH is the ALTS harbinger, and it managed to do that run why naysayers were sure it was dead.
I think this happen with ALTS: a lot of people will sell too early because of this "sell in May" phenomenon, and thereby miss the upcoming months. Classic market is about to play out again
Would be great to have a phenomenal Q3! We never had an uptrend to start in April and go all the way to the fall and maybe later in the final year of the bull market (or otherwise) until now.