Shahran oil depot in Teheran attacked, oil price surged above $100 on Monday. How long can this war go on? Censorship on social media about damage in Israel and Gulf states?
CNN, die anscheinend als einziges westliches Medium einen Reporter im Iran haben, hat von einem katastrophalen Angriff der USA/Israel auf ein großes Öldepot in Teheran berichtet. Eine riesige Wolke mit Öl und toxischen Regen sei die Folge, die Langzeit-Schäden wie Krebs verursachen und den Boden mit giftigen Substanzen kontaminieren könnte.
Auf Social Media mehrt sich in der Zwischenzeit Kritik, dass zwar von Schäden im Iran ausführlich berichtet wird, Schäden in Israel und in den Golf Staaten aber zunehmend aus der Timeline von X verschwinden würden.
Falls das wirklich so ist, würde mich das nicht überraschen, es gibt auch Hinweise, dass es verboten sei, über eigene Schäden zu posten und Videos zu verbreiten. Das hat auch taktische Gründe, aber vor allem geht es auch um die Kriegspropaganda.
Insgesamt ist es daher sehr schwer die Lage objektiv einzuschätzen, der Iran mit 90 Millionen Einwohnern und einer Fläche, die 2.5 mal größer ist als die der Ukraine, setzt auf asymmetrische Kriegsführung und greift auch benachbarte Golfstaaten und US-Militärbasen an.
Ein langer Krieg könnte die gesamte Region, die für die weltweite Energielieferungen extrem wichtig ist, noch weiter ins Chaos stürzen und in Folge zu einer neuen globalen Energie-, Wirtschafts- und humanitären Flüchtlingskrise führen, die vor allem die EU schwer treffen würde.
Auch politisch ist der Einsatz im Iran für Trump hoch riskant. Kann er in kurzer Zeit keine klaren Erfolge liefern und die Region bald beruhigen, könnte ihm das die Midterms und in Folge sogar die Präsidentschaft kosten. Der Krieg dürfte in den USA der bisher unbeliebteste Krieg gegen ein arabisches Land sein und stellt das US-Militär auch vor enormen logistischen Herausforderungen. Die Mehrheit der Amerikaner dürfte den Krieg gegen den Iran ablehnen.
Was sagt ihr dazu? Wie lange denkt ihr wird der Iran-Krieg noch dauern? Ist ein Regime Change realistisch oder läuft es letztendlich auf eine völlige Zerstörung des Irans hinaus? Wie lange denkt ihr, wird der Krieg noch dauern? Was sind die Folgen?
https://x.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/2030611626383331600
CNN's Fred Pleitgen reports from burning Shahran oil depot in Tehran
English
CNN, which appears to be the only Western media outlet with a reporter in Iran, has reported on a catastrophic attack by the US/Israel on a large oil depot in Tehran. The result is said to be a huge cloud of oil and toxic rain, which could cause long-term damage such as cancer and contaminate the soil with toxic substances.
Meanwhile, criticism is mounting on social media that while damage in Iran is being reported in detail, damage in Israel and the Gulf states is increasingly disappearing from X's timeline.
If this is indeed the case, it would not surprise me, as there are also indications that it is forbidden to post about one's own damage and share videos. This is partly for tactical reasons, but above all it is also about war propaganda.
Overall, it is therefore very difficult to assess the situation objectively. Iran, with a population of 90 million and an area 2.5 times larger than Ukraine, is relying on asymmetric warfare and is also attacking neighboring Gulf states and US military bases there.
A long war could plunge the entire region, which is extremely important for global energy supplies, even further into chaos and lead to a new global energy, economic, and humanitarian refugee crisis that would hit the EU particularly hard.
Politically, too, the intervention in Iran is highly risky for Trump. If he cannot deliver clear successes in a short period of time and calm the region soon, it could cost him the midterms and, as a result, even the presidency. The war is likely to be the most unpopular war against an Arab country in US history and also poses enormous logistical challenges for the US military. The majority of Americans are likely to oppose the war against Iran.
What do you think? How long do you think the war with Iran will go on? Is regime change realistic, or will it ultimately lead to the complete destruction of Iran? What are the consequences of a prolonged war?
First of all, the war has significantly impacted us, the Pakistanis, as we share a long 900-km border with Iran. The fuel prices has surged, the increase of 20% and of course, it will bring overall inflation.
Secondly, many sources claim that Iran is left with missile stockpile of around 30-40 days, if it follows the same pattern. With Mr. Trump claim of four-weeks and 30-days ease of sanction for India, it appears that one month is the max limit for both sides.
Thirdly, Gulf states have been hit the most, and in my opinion, they are the only meditating option left - with war impacting them directly and significantly. Majority of their economy is oil and gas dependent, along with tourism, so they are in the hurry.
Fourthly, regime change is not realistic at all. The Iranian Constitution is fully prepared with respect to such scenarios.
Furthermore, how the US is going to fight against a nation whose narrative revolves around martyrdom? Iran has a long history of 6,000 years, and the national/historical ego is way more important than the life. They are the one who love death as much as they love their lives.
Fifthly, we are living in a world built by narratives. One side will search for the positive aspect of Iranian regime, and other will look for the negative aspect. As an example, the western media's claim of 30,000 (which is dubious and vague, not supported by any credible source) death of protestors, and on the other hand, the killing of 160+ elementary school children (which by many sources is blamed on US).
Lastly, let us just forget about every economic loss. Why are not we worried about the human loss? What figure suggest the time to stop? Why doesn't a single death or killing scare us? Why do we have to wait for a massacre or genocide to let the sanity prevail? Humanity is just at stake. Humans killing humans for the same of what? In search of utopia, we are just building or have built a dystopia. I just hope the sanity prevails, although hope is the biggest torment in contemporary time.
(Sorry, if I have yapped a lot 🥲)
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In jedem Krieg gibt es Zensur. Es gibt ja 2 Fronten, die militärische und den Informationskrieg. Es wäre eher überraschend, wenn es anders wäre.
Firstly the reason there is very little damage photos & videos out of Israel is because there is very little damage. All damage, at least to civilian facilities, is reported, but details that would assist Iranian targeting are left out.
This is mainly because Israelis are discipled and don't want to assist the enemy. There is only overt censorship of blatant attempts by foreign press to assist the enemy eg by Turkish film crew filming live outside Israeli military headquarters!
I live in central Tel Aviv in an elevated position and there was a bad strike near us on the 1st or 2nd evening of the war - this was well covered by the media & on X.
Since then there has been virtually nothing in Tel Aviv. A couple of trees & some road damaged. One apartment damaged and a palestinian Arab, illegally in Israel, who was stupidly filming during a strike rather than seeking shelter was killed recently.
Here is an X post by me with video: https://x.com/JpbLiberty/status/2029574024670413207
Because of our central, elevated location I can hear every Iron Dome launch, every interception in the center & any impacts in Tel Aviv.
It has been quite clear to us, just from personal observation, that Iran's firepower has been severely attrited, much more than the 12 day war and much faster than the 12 day war.
How many US soldier deaths are they reporting in Europe? Here in North America they are still only reporting 7 but I keep seeing others saying around 1000. I can't find any sources though.
Gulf states are threatening with fines and jail whoever films and spreads footage from impacts
I fear that Iran is willing to fight regardless of its own losses. Let's say that for every 1,000 Iranians, one American dies. In my opinion, the Iranians are willing to lose 10,000,000 people. Is America prepared to accept 10,000?
Speculators are having a great time these days.
I think this war will last long as both sides are not stopping attacking to each other
!BBH
Oh, die toxische Wolke im Iran? Nur ein Fake, CNN hat doch nur die "saubere" Version mit Glitzer-Spray getestet
#OilHazeOrGlowStick 🌈
The consequence of a prolonged war includes the inflation on the price of the basic needs on the areas directly affected by the war