More Than 10% of Bitcoin Supply Lost Forever

Ledger has released new estimates that shed light on one of the most fascinating aspects of Bitcoin: its scarcity. According to the updated numbers, somewhere between 2.3 million and 3.7 million Bitcoin are permanently lost. That accounts for more than 11% of the total supply, gone forever.

To put this into perspective, Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million coins—a number that can never be increased. When you consider that more than one out of every ten Bitcoin is already lost, the real circulating supply is much lower than many realize. Every misplaced private key, forgotten wallet, or coin stuck in inaccessible addresses contributes to this hidden scarcity.

Why does this matter? Because Bitcoin’s design is built around the principle of limited supply. Unlike fiat currencies, which can be printed in unlimited quantities, Bitcoin’s scarcity is what gives it resilience against inflation. If millions of coins are lost, the remaining supply becomes even more valuable, intensifying the dynamics of supply and demand.

This is not happening in isolation. Other important trends are reinforcing this effect:

• Exchange balances are falling: fewer Bitcoins are sitting on trading platforms, signaling that holders prefer to move them into self-custody rather than keep them available for immediate trade.
• Institutional accumulation is on the rise: major players, from investment funds to listed companies, are holding Bitcoin as a long-term strategic asset. Their steady buying removes even more coins from circulation.

Together, these forces mean that the liquid supply of Bitcoin is shrinking at a time when demand—especially from institutional and retail investors—is set to grow. This dynamic could have far-reaching implications for the future price trajectory of Bitcoin.

Lost coins are often described as a “donation” to the rest of the network, since they make the coins that remain in circulation more scarce and potentially more valuable. While painful for those who lost access, these permanently locked coins only strengthen the scarcity narrative that makes Bitcoin unique.

You can read more about the updated numbers in this X post.