Many are starting to talk about the economic singularity.

Before getting into this, we are dealing with something that is difficult to define. Many people operate with different definitions, something commonplace within the AI world.

That said, the thought process is the same.

Due to advancements in AI and robotics, we are likely to see a massive increase in economic output. Productivity gains will be historic.

In a recent interview, Musk stated that he believes we will see the global economy do a 10x in the next 10 years. He went on to say that this is actually a conservative forecast.

Here is the full interview:

Elon Musk: 10x Economy in 10 Years

AI is considered a general purpose technology. When dealing with a GPT, this transcends any individual industry. Instead, we see something that affects the entire spectrum of the economy.

The most obvious example of this is electricity. That is a general purpose technology. We do not have a single industry that was not affected by this.

AI is going to disrupt every industry. What comes out the other side still is up for debate. Based upon history, we are going to see winners and losers. The key is to position oneself on the side of the winners.

Society will change a great deal. Again, we are dealing with an unknown. One area that is rapidly being upended is the link between labor and capital.

Since we discussed this before, I won't go into great detail. However, this is a central premise for capitalism. Capital was invested to generate a return. To do so, from the standpoint of the economy, labor was required to bring that about.

With AI, we are looking at something completely different. GPUs are now able to output units of cognition, something that previously required humans. In other words, capital is invested and can generate the return without humans (or that is the thought since we are not quite there yet).

What does the world look like when we arrive at that end?

The Robots Are Coming

Humanoid robots have been discussed for the last few years. So far, they are still prototypes. No company has successful reached the stage of mass production.

This will not be the case forever. In the next 24-36 months, we are going to see a least a couple companies starting to churn these out. It is going to take the rest of the decade for scaling to occur but, by 2030, tens of millions could be produced each year.

It is a number that I would believe grows exponentially throughout the first half of the 2030s. By 2035, we could be looking at billions of robots operating throughout the world. To put this in perspective, that's roughly one robot for every human on the planet—a massive shift in the capital-to-labor ratio that underpins modern economies.

The trajectory mirrors previous technological adoption curves. When electricity became viable, it took decades to saturate markets. But AI and robotics are advancing faster than electricity did, compressed by global supply chains and digital distribution of knowledge. A company that figures out reliable, cost-effective humanoid robots at scale doesn't need to build factories in every country—they can manufacture regionally and deploy globally within months.

The economic implications are staggering. If a humanoid robot costs $20,000-$50,000 to manufacture and can work continuously for 10+ years, the per-unit-labor cost becomes absurdly cheap compared to human wages. Suddenly, tasks that were economically unviable to automate—elder care, construction, agriculture, logistics—become attractive targets. This cascades across industries. A manufacturing plant that once employed 500 people might operate with 50 humans supervising 450 robots. Entire supply chains reorganize around robot capabilities rather than human availability.

By mid-decade, we're likely looking at a world where robot ownership becomes as common as vehicle ownership is today. Families might own robots for household tasks. Small businesses deploy them for labor-intensive work. This is when the economic singularity truly accelerates—when the infrastructure is in place and the cost curve has fallen enough that adoption becomes inevitable rather than aspirational.

Based upon this, here is where we see a 10x in the economy. Today, we are dealing with roughly $110 trillion in global GDP. Simple math means we are looking at an economy that is over $1 quadrillion, keeping in mind that GDP is a flawed metric and can be negatively affected by technological advancements. For example, if we solved cancer with a $500 shot, that would wipe billions off GDP as cancer related businesses would implode.

The Industrial Revolution saw a similar jump in GDP. It was during that period where the economy went from roughly .3% growth to the baseline of 3% we had for the first 100+ years. Things slowed a bit over the last couple decades. Nevertheless, there is precedent for that type of jump.

Musk believes it is on its way. Like many, he does not think it is without difficulties. We are going to see societal disruption. How are the problems associated with these developments going to be handled?

Sadly, few are discussing this. Politicians around the world have their heads up their hind ends, probably because many are older than dirt. It is a situation that is arising faster than most anticipate.

The next few years will tell us how rapidly this transition is occurring. Acceleration is all around us.