Sometimes we can garner an understanding by looking at the 'states within the state'.

The United States has a varied economy. This is not only true across the multitude of industries but also shows up when looking at different regions.

When it comes to power, economic productivity is a centerpiece. Areas that are producing find themselves amassing resources. This comes in both the form of assets as well as political power.

The representative system the US employs is based upon population. For example, Congressional seats (in the House) are determined by the population a state has. Those with larger populations have more seats.

What is important is the changes over time. Here is where we see political power potentially changing.

At the same time, the economic output of an area tends to increase with population growth. With more people, basic infrastructure and services are required. The reverse is also true if the population declines.

Changing Population Within US Altering Economy

For decades, California and New York were at the forefront of the United States. The former was the dominant player in technology along with having Hollywood. This provided the state with the ability to be the cultural leader also. In fact, since Hollywood productions went global, it could be said that it influenced the entire planet.

Over the past 5 years, I wrote how Hollywood is cooked. This is evidenced by this article which tells how YouTube is dominating streaming.

New York and California are facing competition on other fronts. Over the past decade, Texas and Florida made enormous gains. We see this in both population and GDP.

Here is a chart that compared the two categories of these four states.

These numbers are impressive, especially in the GDP category. If we looked at these totals on a global scale, we find this:

While the US would place 4 in the top 15 (against countries), there is a shift taking place within the United States.

The Change Over Time

Capital flow is a crucial component in economic activity.

There is an old saying: capital goes where it is treated best. Over the last few years, a large number of companies, along with high wealth individuals, have relocated. This has shifted billions of dollars in capital.

Eventually, that is going to have a major impact.

As we can see the last numbers are a couple years old. My guess is 2025 saw the trend continuing, if not accelerating. Each time a major corporation moves its headquarters, economic productivity shifts.

On the population front, we see California and New York registering 56.7 million people in 2010. That total is now 58.4 million.

In contrast, Texas and Florida has 43.9 million in 2010. Due to the growth of those states, 2024 saw 54.7 million. The gap has basically closed.

As stated, this is having an impact in the political arena.

Economically, we are also seeing a shift, although less than with population. This makes sense since there is often a lag. The relocation of people can come in many forms, including retirees who tend not to be major contributors to economic output, at least in contrast to the younger counterparts.

The combined GDP of California and Texas, in 2010, was $3.3 trillion. In 2024, it stood at $6.4T.

Texas and Florida saw their numbers go from $2.2T to $4.4T. It did an exact doubling whereas the others were $200 billion below that.

Again, a small difference but one that could be telling.

We saw a lot of capital shifting. I already mentioned the companies relocating. There is another factor that one needs to consider. When looking at foreign investment, where does this money end up? Is it going to those who are setting up shop (or operating) in the first group or the second?

All of this brings into question how power is shifting.

JPMorgan has more employees in Texas than New York. SpaceX is going public with the largest IPO in history. Most of the operations are in Texas and Florida. Texas is opening up a new stock exchange to compete with New York. Oracle, Texas, and Chevron all moved their headquarters to Texas (from California) in the last few years.

This is combined with many billionaires moving. Carl Icahn, the Google Boys, and Ken Griffith all headed to Florida.

We will have to watch to see how this changes over the rest of the decade. My conclusion is we are seeing an acceleration.

The 2030 numbers should be interesting.