Would a military intervention in iran impact oil-prices?

Dear fellow finance-interested community here on HIVE.

As you might have noticed Donald Trump is thinking about a military intervention in Iran, which is the next oil-rich country being targeted by the US for a "regime-change".

A U.S. military intervention in Iran would almost certainly push global oil prices upward. Markets react quickly to geopolitical risks, and Iran remains a key oil producer whose exports are vital for global supply. Any conflict in the region increases uncertainty. Traders typically add a “risk premium” to oil prices when they fear supply disruptions, even before actual production is affected.

Around a fifth of global oil shipments pass through the narrow waterway, strait of Hormus. If tensions escalate and Iran threatens or disrupts traffic there, prices could spike sharply. Even minor incidents often trigger immediate market reactions.

If the U.S. signals de-escalation or diplomacy, like they do right now, prices can fall just as quickly. Markets are extremely sensitive to political messaging.
Volatility is ahead. But in which direction will the price go? Probably only Donald Trump and his affiliates know.