My polymarket bets: shorting Tesla... kindof

Hello my lovely Members of the LeoFinance-Community,

I love to try a lot of different possibilities to earn crypto and ask myself often: how can I leverage those gains without being a really good daytrader?
Then I heard of Polymarket. Here is a short explanation if the name does not ring a bett:

Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform that allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events, like elections, pop-culture stuff or even the state of the economy.
One betting market seems really interesting right now. It is called "Elon no longer world's richest before 2026". This market turns to "yes" if Elon Musk drops from place 1 in the forbes billionaires ranking anytime in 2025. In my humble opinion this is way more likely than the market would suggest right now (giving it just a 20% chance).
Almost all of Elons networth consists of shares in Tesla. When those shares drop in price his networth takes a big dip. We saw that already after the Q2 earnings and Q3 could get way worse. Another possibility would be a full-grown stock market crash that draws every stock in the abyss, which will be more painful for the highflyers. Someone else could take over place 1 as worlds richest.
Here is the daily updated list: https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#573708a03d78

Right now Elon is by far the richest person in the world...will it stay like this?

Polymarket.png



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Îs it really the moment to short tesla ?

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