RE: Oil Price Is Going To 100$
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Today, China banned all exports of refined oil, gasoline, diesel, etc. I believe$100 will come sooner than we expect if the war continues for more time.
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$88.36 price just hit….. You should have taken that bet! Looks like I underestimated things. I still think we’ll end year lower than current price but a spike even ultra temporary to $100 looking very possible, easily hit from here since we talked a few days ago. I locked in a bet on price for a year out. We’ll see what happens but I think it collapses back down when the most feared outcomes don’t happen. But no question $100 looking more likely for at least a visit short term. $11.00 cushion ain’t much. I could still see it back at and below $70 quite fast, but that wasn’t the point, point was simply hitting $100 or not. Not how short term or not its visit would be. I’d say we can easily end up still not hitting it, but I can’t claim that with high degree anymore. I underestimated how the worst case would be at least temporally priced in .
It seems that today oil almost reached$120.
It’s at $102 now, (WTI is what most are talking about when we say price) not seeing $120 over here but Indeed! You were right! I underestimated the short term likelihood we’d see $100 break. I thought we’d stay in nineties after spending most the last year in sixties. Will be interesting watching this thing recalculate after the conflict. Personally seems like this is an attack on China that was planned to extreme by US. Very interesting times we live in no doubt! And I underestimated the possibility of $100 so fast. I suspect we will be far lower a year from now though. We shall see, but I believe this is a short term spike that settles down within a couple months.
I think it’s an overreaction but doesn’t change where it is for now. You called it!