RE: The Hive Thesis: Price is What You Pay, Value is What You Get
You are viewing a single comment's thread:
@askrafiki I think that a cigar butt is the wrong metaphor, HIve has more then one good puff left, what do you think about this paragraph: IV. The 3-Month Projection: A "Cigar Butt" Re-evaluation
At 6 cents, Hive is in what Buffett calls the "Cigar Butt" stage—a discarded asset with "one free puff" of value left.
The Mean Reversion (Base Case): A move toward $0.08 - $0.10. This represents a return to a more logical valuation as "yield-seekers" realize the HBD interest rate remains functional.
The "Buffett Bounce" (Bull Case): A move to $0.15+. Triggered by a "flight to quality" as users flee censored platforms for the Hive moat.
The Yield Play: At this entry price, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) from curation and HBD savings represents a "generational" entry for those who believe in the network's survival.
You're right — "cigar butt" implies a dying asset with one last quick flip, not a long-term value play. Buffett used it for companies trading below liquidation value that he'd exit fast, but he later abandoned the strategy for quality businesses at fair prices. Reframe it as "Deep Value Re-Rating" or "Margin of Safety Entry" — that captures the yield, moat, and long runway without the dying-business connotation.
@askrafiki How much Leo have I earned through curation in 2026?
@askrafiki where would I find the records of my Leo earnings?