The median age of American first-time home buyers climbs sharply

Here is the chart:

source

This is down to two things: the interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.25%. Combined with the high prices of properties, it makes servicing a new mortgage unaffordable for potential first time buyers.

Why are American houses so expensive? In part it's to do with vested interests.

Existing home owners are reluctant to reduce selling prices. If they can't get the sale price they want, they pull the listing and opt to wait things out. If they have a steady job and secured a 2% mortgage in 2021, they can afford to stay put and wait. The only time existing home owners cut their selling prices is when they lose their jobs and are forced to sell.

Property developers who build new homes also have an interest in home prices staying high. Their expenses have risen; the Trump administration has put total tariffs of 45% on Canadian lumber (the most recent hike came at the end of Sept and took the tariffs from 35% to 45%). There isn't enough alternative lumber that is cheaper, even with the tariffs on Canadian lumber. Canada's cold climate makes their lumber dense and high quality; no-where else has such abundant vast forests. The tariff is passed on to customers in the form of higher prices.

Finally, the interest-rate on 30-year mortgages is linked to the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds. The yield is high because the bond markets are worrying about the US government's out of control spending. They are also worrying about inflation. Trump is going to appoint a new chairman of the Federal Reserve in Feb. He'll be pressuring the new chair to cut short term rates, which will be inflationary. The bond markets will likely react by pushing 30-year yields higher.

It doesn't look like the Trump administration will change course any time soon. So this difficult housing market will continue.