Comprehensive Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Index on the Weekly Timeframe

1. Basic Trend Structure (Trend Structure)

   • Primary Ascending Channel: The index moves within a clear ascending channel (Ascending Channel), where the lower support line forms a curve inclined from the July 2024 low at ~5,200 points, passing through August lows (~5,300) and October (~6,300) at an angle of approximately 15 degrees. The parallel upper line extends from July highs (~5,600) to September (~6,800) and October (~6,920) containing 80% of the price movement and confirming the continuity of the bullish trend resulting from corporate earnings growth.

2. Supporting Technical Indicators (Technical Indicators)

• Moving Averages:
  • The 50-week moving average (MA 50 blue line): Located at ~6,500 points with the price remaining above it by a margin of 340 points enhancing the buy signal. A golden cross (Golden Cross) occurred in March 2025 where MA 50 crossed above MA 200, a classic indicator of upward momentum.
  • The 200-week moving average (MA 200 red line): ~5,800 points serving as a strong psychological support; breaking it could trigger a correction to 5,500 but the current momentum protects it.
• Fibonacci Levels (Fibonacci Retracement): Drawn from the main low (5,200 in 2024) to the latest high (6,920 in October 2025), highlighting:
  • 38.2% level (~6,200): Successfully acted as support in September 2025.
  • 61.8% level (~6,500): Potential correction target.
  • 161.8% extension (~7,500): Bullish target for 2026.
• Additional Trend Lines: A short-term descending line from July highs to August (~6,000 as resistance) was broken in September leading to an 800-point rise. Additionally, a horizontal line at 6,300 (October low) is supported by high trading volume.

Key Support and Resistance Levels (S&P 500)

4. Projections and Future Scenarios (Projections)

• Overall Momentum: Volume rises with advances (17.76 billion in October) and falls during pullbacks reflecting buyer strength. The weekly RSI indicator at ~68 (not overbought) supports continuity.
• Bullish Scenario (75% probability): Continuation within the channel drives toward 7,000 points by December 2025, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
• Correction Scenario (25% probability): Failure to break 6,900 leads to a pullback to 6,500 (38.2% Fibonacci) an ideal buying opportunity without threatening the main trend thanks to the supporting averages.
• Long-Term Horizon: Extending the lines to 2028 suggests the potential to reach 8,500+ points, with caution regarding external factors such as the 2026 US elections or geopolitical tensions.

This analysis serves as a strategic tool for traders emphasizing the integration of fundamental analysis to enhance accuracy For matching TradingView settings use the Pitchfork tool for the ascending channel If you need additional details such as adding MACD or a daily timeframe analysis I'm ready to assist.