Bitcoin, Aliens, and the Surprising History of the Market
Hello everyone! How are you today? Hope you are having a good day. I have been browsing the market all day collecting some information, so I thought I would share a little today.
Since this morning, I have been looking for data on SPY, QQQ, Bitcoin and other assets. The market seems a little strange. I kept an eye on the prediction market called Polymarket. I saw a strange trend – the probability of confirming the existence of aliens in 2025 is slightly higher than Bitcoin reaching $200,000! At first, I suddenly thought, “Wow, how strange!”. But the more I looked, the market data showed it right – giving the news of aliens a 6% chance, while the probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 is only 5%.
I thought, okay, this is not only funny, but also shows us how people think mentally. When the fundamentals are weak, people are more inclined to stories or narratives. In other words, the market sometimes runs on imagination, not reality.
I looked at Bitcoin. The price is now around $108,000. I've been looking at the chart all day. There is a support line of $104,000–$105,000, but it seems that many important support lines have been broken after falling below $126,000. The RSI is showing 36, so there is a slight oversold situation, but selling pressure is still there.
I found the exchange data from Coinglass. Today, netflow was $46 million outflow. Much less than the previous huge billion dollars. ETF volume is also calm now, and funding rates are slightly negative. That is, traders are a little cautious; no one is in a risky situation.
Putting all this information together, I saw how diverse the mentality of people is. Some say, "Alien news is possible", some say "Bitcoin $200k?" - all in all, the market sentiment is strange at the moment. But this much can be understood, when people pay more attention to the story, not the numbers, then the market is ready for a big movement.
Finally, I saw the CPI report and the earnings season coming. So volatility will increase during this time, which is normal. In my opinion, the important thing at this time is to keep your eyes and ears open, pay attention to which sectors are moving forward or backward, and manage your positions carefully.
It is clear from today's research and analysis - sometimes the thoughts or mindset of marketers have a greater impact than numbers or logic. And it is during such times that good analysts find good opportunities.
✍️ @mirzaiqi: A crypto market analyst who loves to find stories in the numbers.
Posted Using INLEO
So according to you, the chances of aliens being seen are higher than Bitcoin going up 😅
I agree with any analysis that predicts a downtrend 👍
Thank you so much for your feedback
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