SPS Market Analysis Dec 12 – Dec 18 2025 | Splinterlands #499

SPS closed the week at $0.00606910, down 4.6% from the Dec 12 open at $0.00636248. But the real story this week is the price dropped below $0.00600 for the first time in months, hitting $0.00595916 before barely clawing back above the psychological support level.

Let me walk through what actually happened this week.

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The fact that price could not even reclaim $0.00620 tells you everything you need to know, and the price breakdown is probably not done yet. Support at $0.00630 failed decisively this week. That level had held since late November. The Dec 17 drop below $0.00595 proved that $0.00600 is no longer reliable support. The next logical support zone is $0.00570-$0.00580. There is not much between here and there, so if selling pressure continues, the move down will probably be fast. Below $0.00570, we are looking at $0.00550 and potentially the low-$0.00500s, which would mark a full retest of early year lows.

Resistance is now layered above current price. The old support at $0.00630 is now the first resistance. Above that, $0.00650-$0.00660 remains the next major resistance level. And the descending trendline from September sits right above all of this, creating a triple-layer resistance structure. The price needs to reclaim $0.00630 first, then break $0.00650, then challenge the trendline.

Volume spiked this week especially on down days particularly Dec 17 ($18763) and Dec 18 ($32778, the highest of the week). Market cap declined from $3.16M to $2.92M over the week, which is a 7.6% drop that is larger than the token price decline, which suggests some circulating supply effects or additional selling pressure beyond just price movement.

Macro context is brutal right now.

Bitcoin dropped hard this week, closing at $87953, down from $92k+ just a week ago. ETH is at $2950, Solana at $124. The entire crypto market is in full retracement mode, with majority of retail capital rotating away from crypto risky assets. Roughly $10 billion exited Bitcoin and Ether ETFs over the past three weeks. Interestingly, altcoin ETFs showed relative strength this week, led by XRP and Solana. XRP ETFs recorded nearly 30 consecutive days of net inflows, while Solana ETFs attracted close to $700M.

Regulatory signals remained constructive long-term but not moving the short-term price action. The SEC issued a no-action letter to DTCC, clearing a three-year pilot to tokenize securities including Russell 1000 equities, major ETFs, and Treasuries. Visa expanded stablecoin settlement into the U.S., enabling banks to settle transactions in USDC on Solana, and disclosed a $3.5 billion annualized on-chain settlement run rate. JPMorgan launched a tokenized money-market fund and CF Benchmarks tokenized its LCAP index. In other regulatory news, Do Kwon got 15 years and Coinbase unveiled its "everything exchange" roadmap, in which its trying to position itself as infrastructure rather than a pure trading venue

Splinterlands news brought some interesting updates, but no price reaction.

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Player Avatars launched this week, and the Avatar shop now offers Winterfest-themed items, and Polymorph potions can be crafted using 400 Aura and sold on the non-card market. Also, Player Exemplar, is a new customizable card where the image is your player avatar. You start with 20 points to allocate across stats and abilities, and you can level it up 200 times by spending Glint. Both features are cool for gameplay and player engagement. But they did not move the token price.

So, what happens next?

The breakdown below $0.00600 opens downside to $0.00570-$0.00580 next. There is not much support between here and there, so if selling continues, the drop will be fast. Below $0.00570, we are looking at $0.00550 and potentially the low-$0.00500s.

For bulls, reclaiming $0.00630 is the first requirement. From there, breaking $0.00650-$0.00660 with volume would be the first meaningful bullish signal in weeks. But that requires sustained buying pressure, and there is zero evidence of it right now. Factually speaking we are seeing volume spikes on red candles; not green ones and the market cap is declining. Also, it does not help the situation that Bitcoin is bleeding, which is taking the entire altcoin market with it.

Bottom line

SPS broke support at $0.00600 this week, confirming the descending triangle breakdown that has been building since late November. Bitcoin dropped to $87k, and $10B left crypto ETFs. While, Splinterlands have added cool gameplay features (Avatars, Exemplar, new Voucher card), but none of it moved the token price. Next stop? SPS continues to go lower unless something changes fast.

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