📊 SURGE & TTSLA: Realized P/L, Win Rates, and Portfolio Behavior

In this, I confidently evaluate two actively traded RWA tokens: $SURGE and $TTSLA. Utilizing real transaction data, I aim to uncover critical insights into profitability, efficiency, and risk behavior. By employing FIFO-based realized profit and loss calculations, daily activity assessments, and portfolio-level analytics, for a comprehensive understanding of these assets.

Analysis Focus: Evaluates trading performance of two RWA tokens, $SURGE and $TTSLA, from August to November 2025.

TL; DR

• Methodology: Uses FIFO-based realized profit/loss calculations, daily activity assessments, and portfolio analytics for insight.
• Key Findings:
  • $SURGE is the main driver of realized profitability, showcasing significant gains.
  • $TTSLA contributes modestly, with steady but less impactful performance.
• Cumulative P/L: $SURGE shows dramatic growth in realized profits, while $TTSLA has a gradual, lesser increase.
• Win Rate: $SURGE has a high win rate with consistent profitability; $TTSLA has a more mixed, moderate win rate.
• Trading Patterns: $SURGE sees substantial trading volumes during specific periods; $TTSLA offers consistent lower volatility.
• Strategy Recommendation: Utilize $SURGE for high-momentum opportunities and $TTSLA for incremental profits to enhance overall portfolio performance.

Overview & Methodology

All trades were executed utilizing a robust approach that includes:

• FIFO cost basis for accurate tracking
• Realized profit and loss for each selling event
• A comprehensive view of cumulative realized P/L over time
• Daily aggregation of buys, sells, and net flows
• A win rate reflecting the percentage of sells yielding positive realized P/L
• Detailed analysis of average buy price versus average sell price
• Portfolio-level merging of SURGE and TTSLA to present cumulative realized P/L effectively

A method, which delivers a clear and insightful perspective on trading efficiency and profitability trends.

The dataset spans from August 2025 to November 2025, featuring hundreds of discrete transactions involving both buys and sells. Through this robust examination, we will identify key trends and behaviors that can significantly enhance trading strategies and investment decisions.

High-Level Summary

Upon reviewing the financial performance for this period, it is evident that SURGE has been the primary driver of realized profitability, underscoring its role as the cornerstone of this portfolio. The trading activities involving TTSLA are contributing to maintaining an active flow; however, its impact on realized profit and loss remains comparatively modest. Nonetheless, every incremental advantage is significant. From a structural perspective, both tokens are performing admirably: the average selling price is well above the average purchase price, which indicates disciplined entry and exit strategies that effectively capture value.
The associated win rates further substantiate this success, demonstrating both robust sell discipline and astute trade selection. Overall, the execution of trades reveals a consistent competitive advantage, whereby each transaction contributes to a steadily profitable performance rather than relying on sporadic major gains.

Cumulative Realized Profit/Loss (HIVE)

📈 SURGE cumulative P/L
📉 TTSLA cumulative P/L
🏦 Total combined P/L

Interpretation

The performance trajectory of SURGE is exceptionally noteworthy, as it exhibits a dramatic increase starting in mid-October, surging from near-zero to over 1,800 HIVE in realized profit/loss. This remarkable growth clearly constitutes the dominant contributor to the overall gains of the portfolio. In contrast, TTSLA demonstrates a more gradual and modest ascent, providing incremental profit/loss in early November without disrupting the robust momentum driven by SURGE. Until TTSLA experiences a more significant advancement, the overall performance narrative remains predominantly focused on SURGE, underscoring the source of the true alpha and indicating where investors should concentrate their attention for informed trading decisions.

Win Rate Analysis

An analysis of win rates reveals that SURGE demonstrates a notably high percentage of profitable transactions, thereby affirming a consistent pattern of strong profitability and illustrating effective market timing. In contrast, TTSLA, while still exhibiting positive results, presents a more moderate win rate characterized by mixed outcomes, which indicates greater variability in execution. This analysis emphasizes SURGE as a source of reliable gains, whereas TTSLA contributes steady yet less predictable results. Consequently, this underscores the importance of maintaining discipline and selectivity in trade entries and exits.

Daily Activity Insights

The daily aggregation of data presents a comprehensive strategic overview: SURGE exhibits a pronounced presence characterized by substantial trading volumes, particularly on cycling days, where both buy and sell transactions reach into the hundreds. Notable profit and loss (P/L) events are concentrated in critical time periods, specifically between October 14 and October 20. Conversely, TTSLA displays a more consistent trading pattern, with trades more evenly distributed, lower volatility, and smaller yet steady contributions to realized P/L. These observed trends advocate for a dual trading strategy: utilizing SURGE for impactful, high-momentum trading opportunities while allowing TTSLA to function as a reliable source of incremental profits, thereby enhancing overall portfolio performance over time.

Running Token Balances

Computed balances provide a clear view of risk dynamics: SURGE has exhibited strong swell-and-release cycles, demonstrating aggressive, opportunistic accumulation and solidifying its status as the portfolio’s alpha engine. In stark contrast, TTSLA operated within a much narrower balance band, indicative of a disciplined, lower-risk strategy. This balance behavior underscores our dual-role strategy: SURGE fuels exceptional gains through high-conviction moves, while TTSLA delivers reliable, complementary exposure without introducing significant inventory risk.

Portfolio-Level Insights

When analyzing the combined performance of both tokens, the portfolio's overall profit and loss (P/L) reveals an interesting narrative:

• SURGE leads in gains due to its significant fluctuations,
• while TTSLA contributes steady, incremental profits that help stabilize returns.

In total, the system has proven to be highly profitable over the study period, generating realized gains of over 1.8k HIVE in approximately two months. The key takeaway is that this strategy is not only profitable but also compoundingly effective, as reinvested HIVE enhances returns over time. For those monitoring performance, this serves as a prime example of how to pair a high-alpha asset with a stable, lower-volatility counterpart to create a strong trading system.

PS: Haven't mentioned the respective yields 😅

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