The Late Leitmotif Post
This is a late post from pretty much all points of view. But don't they say "better late than never"? I'm not sure this is correct every time, but sometimes it has some ground.
Yesterday was Hive Power Up Day... I powered up a little HIVE, as always. I also managed to power up every day last month, something that I didn't manage the month before:
Speaking of powering up, I saw a comment one of these days mentioning powering down as a bad thing for Hive and that many people are doing it nowadays. Since I am someone who unstakes coins or tokens when I believe it's suitable, I don't have a problem with that, unless it becomes a significant problem for governance, but even then, a resilient project will deal with that. It matters more if you still plan to be involved long term or not. It also matters more where the protocol, platform, or project is going.
In a comment to my previous post, @ph1102 mentioned that only a handful of "ships" might get "risen" during this end of a bull market, and that we will see sporadic pumps of specific tokens.
I seem to be in a slow-motion mode when it comes to interacting nowadays, but while this might be possible, I remember a mistake I kept doing during my first real cycle in crypto: to attempt to ride different waves by jumping from one to another. And by that, I don't mean rotating from BTC to alts and then smaller alts, which was normal back then (but I didn't know), but simply sell tokens that appeared to under-perform for others that were pumping. That way, I missed the pump on the tokens that pumped because I obviously came in late after they already began moving vertically, and missed the pumps on the tokens I sold, which usually came at a different time.
I still believe this is a mistake to avoid, even this cycle, because you may end up being exit liquidity, and it will hurt. Both financially, and your feelings. Sure, maybe you get lucky and make a serious profit. I guess if you like gambling, that might be one of those "high risk, high reward" things. At my age, I am less and less inclined to gamble, in any form that might take.
You want a recent example? At the beginning of the months I take a look of my crypto holdings, which is a pretty laborious work, you'll see why. Among them, a couple hundred PRE tokens earned for using the Presearch search engine. They are worth almost nothing and can't even claim them until I get to 1000 PRE, which at my rate of using Presearch might still take a few years, lol. But... I use search engines anyways, and they are privacy-oriented.
Why am I telling you about it? When I checked its price I noticed it was higher than "usual". So... I checked its chart. Here it is:
You see a period of accumulation since early August, followed by steady but relatively calm price rise since Aug 22 (all likely prompted by this*), and then the P&D at the end.
When do you think they attracted the most attention? On the vertical movement, I assume. How many bought and how many sold then? Well, to sell, you needed to previously hold some. And to make the decision to sell and act on it. If you didn't, you would be on the way down, still holding hoping for a reversal, or "catching falling knives" to increase your holdings thinking you are buying the dip.
Of course, this is just an example. Personally, I wouldn't advise people to buy PRE. I only earn them and never occurred to me to buy them.
Speaking of the market... Interesting what is happening today. Bull trap or a rather late reaction to this?
*) What would it take for Hive to have more companies use it for their communications instead of Medium?
I have to say that it worked very well in the past for some tokens... Not for all... It made the feeling that everyone is a trading genius... 😃 Nowadays, I doubt it will work, but it could work the other way around... again... for some tokens... TO go out from those who already had a pump, and to go into undervalued assets... But, the question is still the same... Which ones? 😃
I was wondering the same thing for years! We are trying to sell HIVE pumps, earning by creating posts, etc., instead of "selling" HIVE as a Web3 platform where you can post updates of your project and possibly get a targeted audience for it! It costs nothing for a company, and it's not that Medium has some crazy SEO that brings much better visibility...
I'm using a more conservative approach. Get out after a big pump into stablecoins (especially this late into the bull market), and wait for the bear market. Then decide what to buy again.
Something like what Presearch made for Medium is entirely possible on Hive too - using their platform and front end but with Presearch' domain name, and I've seen they had comments turned off (or maybe I needed to be logged in).
We can even create Hive communities where the admin can control the level of interaction (as in who posts or who comments). This was planned for a long time, but only recently became functional, from my understanding.
It will be interesting to see what PeakD does with their project to create a customizable Hive front end (based on PeakD). The level of customization possible will be important too.
I didn't know that it was in plans, but it makes sense to have that! It could encourage businesses to use HIVE for purposes as Medium
I'll do my level best to avoid that mistake! Given that select tokens will pump the most, it's always tempting to increase one's exposure to many tokens than just consolidating them into a few. I'm not sure what the right balance it and it's always hard to sell one underperforming token to buy one that's about to pump. I feel that markets are dynamic, the underperforming one could end up performing while the one about to pump may only pump satisfactorily. Sometimes, the hassle of switching around doesn't seem to worth it much.
That's what I discovered in my first cycle. In fact, it would have been better to not move them at all, and I would have ended up better when the market peaked.
Personally, I try not to switch from one volatile coin to another at the end of the bull market. At least not to a great degree, maybe here there I make some adjustments. If I sell, I do it mostly for stables, with the plan to buy back into volatile coins/tokens during the bear market.
Right, I think one is better off developing patience, sell once into stables and wait for other opportunities to buy again during the bears. Rotating during the bull periods tend to give suboptimal gains when not done correctly.
I've done that, so I know. It's true, I didn't know much about crypto back then.
Indeed if we get rid of tariffs btc and alts could benefit... But I'm still on my idea, no alt pumps as long as war in Ukraine doesn't end
Then... we won't have alt pumps this cycle, as that seems far from over.
Yep, probably... When's next cycle?
Well hidden... for now. 😄
I get that keep HP reduces what is available on the market, but there just may not be the demand to buy it. I also get that some people really need money right now. I am fortunate not to, but you need patience in this game.
I don't really use Medium, so I have little idea what it's like. Hive ought to be attractive for being free to use with no ads and full control of your feed. It does allow freed for people to spam, but if you use communities then you can moderate that. I want to see more top creative people here, but they want a bigger audience than we can offer. It's the chicken/egg problem.
!BEER
That can be a big issue. If it isn't demand close to the end of the bull market, won't be in the bear market.
Hive is a long term game, but at the same time the majority of its user base is from places where immediate needs are high and regular.
I don't use it either, except when being sent there to read something. No ads and full control of your feed may become attractive at some point and already is for certain categories of people, but not for the majority, unfortunately. Yes, Hive communities could bridge the gap between Web 2 and Web 3 much easier. Unfortunately, somehow we are quite good at reducing our user base instead of increasing it.
https://x.com/jewellery_all/status/1962982153404481643
For me, it makes no sense to try to predict what Bitcoin or alt-coins might do. The system has huge complexity and dynamics, which means you can't even make an educated guess. What is left, in my opinion, is that you have to make a decision and stick to it until you can take some results and analyze them versus the assumptions you made when you made the decision. If the assumptions no longer hold, the decision must also be revised. That's the logic I use for my investments...
!PIMP
!PIZZA
I agree with the way you do this. To some degree, I do the same. I am more stubborn in some decisions and more flexible in others, which over time hasn't worked out so great, so maybe I'll need to revise that too. Curiously, I have a pretty damn good "gut feeling", but not enough times take action on it. Also, until the previous cycle, I haven't taken enough profits, and I may overcompensate this one. We will see how things turn out in the end...
$PIZZA slices delivered:
@steemmillionaire(3/5) tipped @gadrian
Come get MOONed!
https://x.com/lee19389/status/1963045936843915310
#hive #posh
The market will do what it wants, and I think people can do what they want with their HP. I don't blame anyone for powering down, but I have noticed that PeakD has a new badge for people who never powered down.
Yes, it does. I thought I'd have it for my staking account, but I checked and I powered down a little Hive years ago, so... nope.
Now... that also depends on the age (and the role) of the account. It's one thing not to have powered down as a new account, another not to have done it for many years.