Well, if anything, this isn't how I expected the 2nd week to play out. I pretty much got in a downswing losing pretty much every bet while not really holding back on my stakes as I want to get something going instead of always being overly cautious.
Aside from maybe adding too much on the corners under in the Club Brugge match where it just kept raining corners and it only slowed down too late, I can't really say I did that much wrong even though not all positions were that great. All of the pre-game bets pretty much crushed the closing lines which remains the main indicator for long-term profitability.
So the big question now is how to proceed from here on out as the season just started and I'm down -2.4 units already after this week. I kind of want to get back in the green as quickly as possible and the best way to do this is just keep somewhat elevated stakes. At the same time, this losing week now is nothing compared to what a real losing streak possibly cand look like. I can easily handle a 40-50 unit downswing financially but do I really want to take that risk in a market where in the end the edge has proven to be limited. In the 2023-2024 seasobn at some point I was down around 8 units but still ended the season in the green despite lowering my stakes a lot.
The pattern pretty much always is the same, take a bit more risk and increase stakes is instantly followed by a big downswing and the moment I drastically lower my stakes it all goes up again which is very frustrating. I just want to increase my stakes a bit, get on a good run and keep them there for a while in a stable way instead of always having to hold back out of fear to hit a big downswing.
Pre-Game Preview Bets Season 2026-2027
https://images.hive.blog/DQmUfjz94KuViqJf8oouB6ArSDofYTVgaafzHCGq25n12Yd/image.png
All 4 bets had much lower closig lines this week but only one lost half with 2 goals against me in the last minutes even though to be honest over the entire match a draw was pretty fair. For now, I will likely just continue these bets this way.
Previous 6 Seasons Result
https://images.hive.blog/DQmTHzBnYqB8riGbMG7Rj3h6Q2ivm9viJ8cV6Lz4KnJVrNe/image.png
Aside from sharing my previews and bets on my Blog, I also cover all matches live in our SBC Discord Channel sharing all the bets I take. The main purpose is to stay sharp and keep myself accountable.
2026-2027 Season Chart
From the peak to the bottom this is a 3.5 unit downswing pretty much going straight down with the bigger positions most of the time being just 0.4 to 0.6 units. In total I staked 6.753 units last week which is getting closer to the 8-10 I want to do weekly but it also came with the big frustrating swing. At the same time, this all is nothing new and just part of everyday betting reality. I now just go in the new week with the main aim to stay sharp, not do anything stupid and just have a winning week without the need to get back in the green anytime soon.
Season Results 2026-2027
Week 02 Results 43 Bets | 13W-27L-03P | Staked 06.753u | -2.723u Loss
Week 01 Results 40 Bets | 18W-16L-06P | Staked 04.407u | +0.347u Profit
Total Season 2026-2027 Results
83 Bets | 31W-43L-9P | 11.160u Staked | -2.376u Profit | -21.30% ROI
Previous 9 Seasons...
Season 2025-2026 | 1635 Bets +1.16% ROI
Season 2024-2025 | 1676 Bets +1.04% ROI
Season 2023-2024 | 1132 Bets +1.83% ROI
Season 2022-2023 | 1598 Bets +4.71% ROI
Season 2021-2022 | 1364 Bets +2.72% ROI
Season 2020-2021 | 1504 Bets +4.37% ROI
Season 2019-2020 | 1406 Bets +2.48% ROI
Season 2018-2019 | 1090 Bets +2.47% ROI
Season 2017-2018 | 821 Bets +7.22% ROIhttps://images.hive.blog/DQmPmqk45qWGs2QJkdxyENdLBLbrgUmPokp3fxF9Z1eHThJ/image.png
Crypto & Blockchain-Based Bookies and Exchanges that I'm personally using with some allowing anonymous betting with no KYC or personal restrictions...
 |  |  |
|---|
3 comments
Quite red at the moment but from my experience this happens when new seasons start. The teams are not yet glued together, nor are they fit at the highest level, thus surprise results happen. Also a lot of changes might happen and one would need to look over the new players and so on. But I believe in time things will balance themselves and results be more predictive. Good luck!
Well, I would argue that early in the season there should be more edge as often prices are set based on the team dynamics from the season before. The reality is that it's just normal variance, there will be big winning streaks and big losing streaks. The key is to have the winning streaks be stronger and most of all stay disciplined with good bankroll management to survive these swings and come out on top. A good quality I would say is to have a mental reset button and not be overly influenced by both recnt bad or good streaks. The grind continues this week :-)
@costanza, esto me recuerda al ciclo anterior, cuando todos dudaban y los datos ya habían hablado.