Playoffs Week 3 Results | 11W-14L-2P | -0.998 Units Loss

9 days ago

This is a weekly overview of my personal sports betting/trading results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League, documenting my journey toward long-term profit with some insights on my overall approach.

The 3rd week of the playoffs turned out int a pretty fustrating one with a rather big loss as I had 2 main confident bets with higher stakes of which one pushed and the other one lost while I could have easily already reduced the exposure in-game.

My main position was on the Under in Union vs Club Brugge in multiple ways. Purely looking at the numbers it looked quite good afterward as the 1.985 odds I managed to take on the Under 2.5 closed at around 1.800 which indicated good value. I also crushed the 1H Under 1 odds. The first half xg were 0.39-0.26 yet it was an 1-1 score and the FT xg closed at 0.74-0.72 with a 2-1 score as I on top had a 0.2 unit exposure on Club Brugge. While the xg were much lower compared to the 2.5 line, it did afterward feel much more like a coin flip that could have gone both ways and off course went the wrong way. Club Brugge adjusted themselves and also had Vanaken not ready which resulted on them getting totally dominated by Union who seem to have found their best form.

So Yeah, it sucks to lose around a Full unit on this match but at the same time I was willing to take the loss and it's not that the position was totally wrong. Just the wrong side of the coin and again a failed attemt of getting into a bigger position anticipating a real edge. If anything, I should likely increase my smaller stakes a bit and lower my bigger stakes

Many of the other matches also were quite hard as there are too many teams with nothing really to play for anymore. This once again makes me think about cutting the playoffs short or at least slow down a lot.

Pre-Game Preview Bets Season 2025-2026

The losing under bet also puts me back slightly in the red on the 'confident' bets this season after having had 31 of them so far. The sample is way too small to draw any conclusions though and I'm still quite ok on them long term.

Previous 5 Seasons Result

Aside from sharing my previews and bets on my Blog, I also cover all matches live in our SBC Discord Channel sharing all the bets I take. The main purpose is to stay sharp and keep myself accountable.

I take all my Pre-Game & Live bets with my Betting Broker Sportmarket Pro who always provides the best offers on the market with a 1 click solution and doesn't limit winning players offering high limits. For more info check my Sportmarket Pro Review

Playoffs 2025-2026 Chart

Complete 2025-2026 Season Chart

The loss this week really makes a big difference on the chart and I'm back in the danger zone as far away from the 'expected profit' to having no profit at all this season. Right now it feels like it still can go both ways but it kills all my willingness to take much risk. I expect the remainder of the season will be really cautions and I might cut it short in case I get closer to the break even point which would be really dissapointing. At the same time it really feels like variance was heavily againt me with at least 3 big positions that I got into (which are very rare) that went against me somehow. At this point, I would instantly sign just to end things slightly below the expected pink line but for all I know there could be a massive winning streak in the last 7 weeks. I guess only time will tell.

Season Results 2025-2026

Total Season 2025-2026 Results
1440 Bets | 624W-676L-140P | 161.909u Staked | +1.964u Profit | +1.21% ROI

Previous 8 Seasons...

Season 2024-2025 | 1676 Bets +1.04% ROI
Season 2023-2024 | 1132 Bets +1.83% ROI
Season 2022-2023 | 1598 Bets +4.71% ROI
Season 2021-2022 | 1364 Bets +2.72% ROI
Season 2020-2021 | 1504 Bets +4.37% ROI
Season 2019-2020 | 1406 Bets +2.48% ROI
Season 2018-2019 | 1090 Bets +2.47% ROI
Season 2017-2018 | 821 Bets +7.22% ROI

IThere is some mid-week action this week so I will be back tomorrow already with some previews...

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1 comments

@aqsagu 0

9 days ago

Solid breakdown—but are your bigger stakes based on real edge, or emotions creeping in after previous results?

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