Jupiler League Week 1-6 Asian Handicap Statistics!
I have kind of been neglecting the excel file I'm keeping myself to get some key stats I can't really find elsewhere to identify some trends along with teams that are under or overvalued. After 2+ hours I'm now fully up to date and ready to share some of the stats.
Standings
End Week 6
As always, for me the general standings don't really say all that much as bottom teams can be highly profitable to bet on while teams who are at the top can be losing based on their asian handicap. Some matches were postponed due to European duties but they will be played in the coming weeks.
Overall Stats
Week 1-6
The trend is pretty much the complete opposite of the 1st 6 weeks last season where the underdogs and the overs did best. So more than anything it's just info that will see some regression to the mean. One of the differences this season is that there likely won't be a team that regelates which should in theory make bottom teams more willing to play. However, many teams so far have been playing really defensive and scared looking for results.
Best Teams against Asian Handicap
| Team | W1-6 |
|---|---|
| Sint-Truiden | +63.25% ROI |
| Union | +46.83% ROI |
| Antwerp | +16.67% ROI |
| Mechelen | +15.83% ROI |
| Anderlecht | +15.00% ROI |
| AA Gent | +7.50% ROI |
| Zulte-Waregem | +0.58% ROI |
| Charleroi | -9.83% ROI |
| Club Brugge | -10.33% ROI |
| OH Leuven | -17.67% ROI |
| La Louviere | -20.00% ROI |
| Westerlo | -20.33% ROI |
| Standard | -23.00% ROI |
| Cercle Brugge | -28.17% ROI |
| Genk | -37.33% ROI |
| Dender | -50.83% ROI |
Stvv with a combination of an easy schedule and good defenisve stability so far has been the surprise of the league but they are at a point where they are getting overrated and there should be a natural regression to the mean.
Highest Goals Team against Asian Total
| Team | Week 1-6 |
|---|---|
| Genk | +29.33% RO |
| Westerlo | +12.50% ROI |
| Standard | -1.83% ROI |
| Union | -5.67% ROI |
| Zulte-Waregem | -6.17% ROI |
| Charleroi | -11.50% ROI |
| AA Gent | -18.60% ROI |
| Mechelen | -21.17% ROI |
| Anderlecht | -21.83% ROI |
| Antwerp | -28.50% ROI |
| OH Leuven | -34.00% ROI |
| Sint-Truiden | -35.17% ROI |
| Cercle Brugge | -35.83% ROI |
| La Louviere | -38.17% ROI |
| Club Brugge | -42.42% ROI |
| Dender | -68.17% ROI |
Basically, there are only 2 teams so far who are positive on the overs which are Genk and Westerlo who are the most offensive teams. Mostly Club Brugge is highly overrated on the goals. I do expect that lines will get a bit lower on average and things to regress to the mean by the next international break.
Hidden Divergence
One of my favorite angles to find good bets is too look at the biggeste home-away divergence in goals and also in 1H-2H differences. Lines most of the times are derived from stats and these factors often get neglected still.
| Team | Home Over | Away over |
|---|---|---|
| Antwerp | +26.33% | -83.33% |
| Anderlecht | +56.33% | -100% |
| Union | +27.33% | -38.67% |
| Westerlo | -34.67% | 59.67% |
| Standard | 31.67% | -35.33% |
| Stvv | 29.67% | -100% |
| Zulte-Waregem | -100% | +87.67% |
| La Louviere | -100% | +23.67% |
Many teams so far who see a divergence in Home / away teams but with such a small sample it might also very much be due to randomness instead of an actual trend.
Personal Ratings Chart
I give each team a rating myself after watching the match and tend to take the last 4 matches as a good form indicator to go by. So far, the average ratings of the teams give these standings...
| Team | Avg Rating |
|---|---|
| 1. Union | 7.13 / 10 |
| 2. Genk | 6.86 / 10 |
| 3. Anderlecht | 6.86 / 10 |
| 4. Club brugg | 6.74 / 10 |
| 5. Antwerp | 6.57 / 10 |
| 6. Stvv | 6.53 / 10 |
| 7. Mechelen | 6.48 / 10 |
| 8. AA Gent | 6.40 / 10 |
| 9. Cercle Brugge | 6.35 / 10 |
| 10. Charleroi | 6.34 / 10 |
| 11. Zulte-Waregem | 6.32 / 10 |
| 12. Standard | 6.23 / 10 |
| 13. Westerlo | 6.22 / 10 |
| 14. La Louviere | 6.13 / 10 |
| 15. OHL | 6.07 / 10 |
| 16. Dender | 6.05 / 10 |
That's it for now. I'm looking forward to the next 5 weeks of the league before the next break and aim to continue the good streak that I started the season with.
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