Into the Chaos Core: crypto hit by extreme fear
The current cryptocurrency market is characterized by a "dichotomy of extreme fear" caused by macroeconomic pressure and cascading liquidations, while titans of traditional finance strategically build long-term infrastructure for a future wave of adoption.
Report on the State of the Global Cryptocurrency Market: November 15, 2025
1.0 Market Situation Summary: "Extreme Fear" Sentiment and Cascading Liquidations
The cryptocurrency market is in a state of heightened instability, defined by a fundamental conflict: while retail panic and macroeconomic pressure destroy value in the short term, titans of traditional finance are strategically and quietly building infrastructure for the next wave of adoption. Understanding this dichotomy is crucial for assessing current risks and market dynamics, where dominant selling pressure clashes with long-term, structural development.
Analysis of market sentiment indicates deep pessimism. The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to just 10 points, signaling "extreme fear". This is the lowest reading since the end of February 2025, reflecting a brutal, week-long sell-off across all major digital assets.
Key bearish indicators confirm the scale of the correction:
- Total global market capitalization fell to $3.24 trillion, representing a 0.77% drop over the last 24 hours.
- Over the last seven days, the market lost 5.8% of its total value.
Market shocks triggered a cascading wave of liquidations, further deepening the declines. Positions totaling $1.35 billion were liquidated in a single day, making this event the second worst in history by scale. The vast majority involved long positions, indicating the market was surprised by the suddenness of the declines.
The table below provides a detailed breakdown of liquidations:
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Liquidations | $1.35 billion |
| Long Position Liquidations | $1.16 billion |
| Short Position Liquidations | $179.48 million |
| Bitcoin's Share in Liquidations | $671.36 million |
| Ethereum's Share in Liquidations | $296.65 million |
These market-wide shocks affected different asset classes variably, leading to a distinct separation of Bitcoin's trajectory from the broader altcoin market, requiring detailed analysis.
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2.0 Analysis of Leading Assets: Bitcoin Decoupling and Altcoin Capitulation
The market is observing an unprecedented phenomenon of "decoupling," which is the separation of Bitcoin's price dynamics from the altcoin market. This phenomenon challenges historical correlation patterns and holds strategic importance, forcing investors to re-evaluate diversification strategies and perceive individual digital assets as distinct classes with unique risk factors.
Bitcoin (BTC): Digital Safe Haven Under Pressure
Bitcoin, trading in the range of 95,900–96,100, has fallen below the key psychological level of $100,000. This represents a 24.1% drop from its all-time high of $126,144, indicating strong selling pressure. Despite this, Bitcoin manifests a dual nature in the current market:
- Internal "safe haven": During periods of uncertainty, investors shift capital from riskier altcoins to Bitcoin, confirmed by its market dominance maintaining around 40%.
- Increasing negative correlation with traditional markets: Over the last 50 trading sessions, Bitcoin's correlation coefficient with the S&P 500 index dropped to -0.5, indicating that while stock markets maintained stability, Bitcoin experienced significantly greater weakness.
JPMorgan analysts, however, present a contrasting, more optimistic long-term perspective:
- Support Level: The support level at $94,000, identified by JPMorgan analysts, is not just a technical indicator but a fundamental economic threshold. It corresponds to the global cost of production (mining), which historically limits selling pressure from miners and creates a natural barrier against further declines.
- Long-Term Forecast: A model based on parity with the gold market (factoring in volatility) suggests a potential increase to $170,000 within a 6–12 month horizon.
A worrying signal of short-term fear is the capital outflow from Bitcoin ETFs, which amounted to $492 million on November 14 alone, marking the second worst day in history for these products.
Altcoin Market: Phase of Deep Correction
According to Glassnode analysis, the altcoin market is in a "capitulation phase". On-chain indicators show that only 5% of the total altcoin supply is currently yielding profit for holders, demonstrating extreme pessimism and a deep correction. The weakness of this market segment is illustrated by the following examples:
- Ethereum (ETH): The price of 3,159.61 is accompanied by significant ETF outflows, which totaled $178 million on November 14. Weakening institutional confidence further burdens the second-largest cryptocurrency.
- Solana (SOL): A price of $141.45 and a drop in the number of daily active addresses on the network to a 12-month low signal a rapid cooling of retail enthusiasm. This divergence between institutional demand for ETFs and diminishing retail network activity may indicate the formation of a bipolar market.
- Other major altcoins: A broad scope of selling pressure is also visible in price declines for XRP (-1.11%), Cardano (ADA) (-2.49%), and Dogecoin (DOGE) (-0.42%).
This deep downturn is not an internal phenomenon; its roots lie in the global macroeconomic and political landscape, which currently dictates risk appetite across all markets.
3.0 Key Macroeconomic and Political Factors
The digital asset sector is increasingly connected to traditional financial markets, and its fate depends on political and monetary decisions. Understanding these external forces is currently essential for assessing the market's future trajectory, as they largely dictate capital flows and investor sentiment.
Change in Expectations Regarding Federal Reserve Policy
Market expectations have undergone a rapid recalibration concerning the future monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged during the December meeting rose to 54.1%, which represents a complete reversal of earlier expectations for a rate cut. The hawkish stance of the Fed directly increases the opportunity cost of holding risky, non-yielding assets like cryptocurrencies. The rise in US Treasury yields creates a "gravitational force" pulling capital away from speculative markets toward safe havens.
Political Uncertainty in the United States
The political situation in the USA remains a source of structural uncertainty. Although the government shutdown was temporarily averted, the agreement reached is only valid until January 2026. The lack of a permanent solution maintains the risk of future administrative paralyses. In the long-term context, it is worth noting that the newly elected administration of President Trump signals a preference for a "lighter" approach to cryptocurrency regulation ("light-touch regulation"), which may benefit the industry in the future.
Despite these macroeconomic headwinds, significant—yet often contradictory—changes are occurring in the sphere of regulation and institutional adoption, shaping the market's future.
4.0 Regulatory Landscape and Institutional Innovations: Two Faces of the Market
The cryptocurrency market is at a crossroads, defined by a fundamental conflict: while retail panic and macroeconomic pressure destroy value in the short term, titans of traditional finance are strategically and quietly building infrastructure for the next wave of adoption. These two powerful, opposing trends define the current stage of market maturity and set its long-term direction.
Progress in Regulation and Market Oversight
The regulatory environment, although still ambiguous, is beginning to take clearer shape, which may foster stability and investor confidence in the long term.
- New SEC guidelines: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) published new guidelines aimed at shortening the approval process for cryptocurrency ETFs from 240 to just 75 days.
- Legislative initiatives: Senators Cory Booker and John Boozman continue working on a draft cryptocurrency market structure bill, aiming to create clear and consistent legal frameworks for the industry.
Simultaneously, supervisory authorities demonstrate their determination in enforcing regulations. An example is the Dubai court decision, which issued the world's first global asset freeze order worth $456 million in a case related to irregularities in the reserves of the TrueUSD stablecoin.
Acceleration of Institutional Adoption
Despite short-term market panic, the pace of institutional adoption is not slowing, which indicates a deep and lasting integration of digital assets with the global financial system.
- Launch of JPM Coin (JPMD): JPMorgan Chase, one of the world's largest banks, officially launched its digital deposit token for institutional clients. Operating on the Base blockchain (developed by Coinbase), JPMD enables instant 24/7 payment settlement, eliminating delays characteristic of the traditional banking system.
- Alibaba-JPMorgan Partnership: E-commerce giant Alibaba partnered with JPMorgan to utilize the JPMD infrastructure for tokenizing USD and EUR deposits. The goal is to streamline cross-border payments.
- Real-World Asset Tokenization (RWA): The trend of tokenizing real-world assets is gaining momentum. An example is the launch of BlackRock's first tokenized asset fund in 2024, BUIDL, which demonstrates Wall Street's growing interest in using blockchain technology to digitize traditional financial instruments.
The collision of short-term market panic with long-term, strategic adoption of technology by key financial institutions defines the most important observation points for the coming months.
5.0 Outlook and Strategic Conclusions
The cryptocurrency market is at a turning point. It is torn between immediate macroeconomic pressure and fundamental structural changes, driven by the entry into the market of the largest players from the world of traditional finance.
Key Strategic Conclusions
- Dominance of Short-Term Selling Pressure: The combination of the Fed's hawkish policy, significant capital outflows from ETFs, and cascading liquidations in the derivatives market will likely maintain pressure on prices in the coming sessions.
- Imperative of Strategic Asset Class Differentiation: The enduring decoupling requires investors to abandon a monolithic view of the crypto market. Bitcoin and altcoins must be treated as distinct asset classes, with diametrically different risk profiles and driving factors, mandating a fundamental revision of portfolio diversification strategies.
- Long-Term Strength of Institutional Innovations: Initiatives like JPM Coin, the Alibaba-JPMorgan partnership, and asset tokenization by BlackRock represent a powerful, long-term bullish signal. They point to the irreversible integration of blockchain technology with the global financial system, which builds a foundation for future growth and legitimation of the entire asset class.
In the near future, it will be crucial to monitor the following indicators, which will determine the market's direction:
- Bitcoin's retention of the key support level at $94,000, which coincides with its cost of production.
- Signals from the Federal Reserve's December meeting regarding the future path of interest rates.
- Stabilization of capital flows into and out of major cryptocurrency ETFs, which will be an indicator of the return of institutional confidence.
FAQ
What is the current investor sentiment in the global cryptocurrency market?
The current market sentiment is characterized by "extreme fear". The Fear & Greed Index dropped to just 10 points, the lowest reading since the end of February 2025, reflecting a brutal, week-long sell-off in the market.
What was the scale of cascading liquidations and who was affected the most?
Positions totaling $1.35 billion were liquidated in a single day, marking the second worst day in history for the scale of liquidations. The vast majority of these liquidations involved long positions ($1.16 billion), indicating the market was surprised by the suddenness of the declines. Bitcoin had the largest share in liquidations ($671.36 million), followed by Ethereum ($296.65 million).
Is Bitcoin still strongly correlated with traditional stock markets, such as the S&P 500?
No, Bitcoin is experiencing an increasing negative correlation with traditional markets. Over the last 50 trading sessions, Bitcoin's correlation coefficient with the S&P 500 index dropped to -0.5, suggesting that Bitcoin weakened while stock markets maintained stability.
What are the long-term forecasts for the price of Bitcoin according to JPMorgan analysts?
JPMorgan analysts identified $94,000 as a key support level because it aligns with Bitcoin's global cost of production. A model based on parity with the gold market suggests a potential price increase for Bitcoin to $170,000 within a 6–12 month horizon.
How are traditional financial institutions, such as JPMorgan and Alibaba, utilizing blockchain technology?
JPMorgan Chase officially launched JPM Coin (JPMD), a digital deposit token operating on the Base blockchain, which enables institutional clients to have instant 24/7 payment settlements. Furthermore, e-commerce giant Alibaba partnered with JPMorgan to utilize the JPMD infrastructure for tokenizing USD and EUR deposits, thereby streamlining cross-border payments.
What characterizes the altcoin "capitulation" phase?
According to Glassnode analysis, the altcoin market is in a "capitulation phase". This is evidenced by the fact that only 5% of the total altcoin supply is currently yielding profit for holders, signaling extreme pessimism and a deep correction in this market segment.
What regulatory changes is the SEC introducing regarding cryptocurrency ETFs?
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) published new guidelines aimed at shortening the approval process for cryptocurrency ETFs from 240 to just 75 days, which is intended to facilitate market access for a broader range of investors.
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